Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.
Authored by Ivan Delgado, Head of Market Research at Global Prime. This report intends to unveil the directional bias the smart money is supporting based on the latest changes in market positioning by leveraged, non-leveraged, commercials, small and large funds, asset managers, and dealers (unhedged traders). If one wishes to gain further insights into how to read the CoT data I publish every week, read the following report (primer).
Observation: This week’s CoT reading interpretation was somehow distorted by two major macro developments that continue to drive markets. The most recent news on both Brexit and China/US trade negotiations were not captured by the latest CoT data up to Nov 13th. I am referring to the fallout in the UK govement after the resignation of UK’s Brexit Secretary Raab and a number of new political uncertainties. On the China trade negotiations with the US, a tweet by Trump late on Friday led to a re-pricing of a better outcome at the G20 summit, scheduled for early December. The tweet led to algorithms pushing down the USD ahead of the weekend.
There are 4 types of reports published by the CFTC. However, there are only two we want to pay attention to, which include 1. The legacy and 2. The traders in financial futures (TIFF), with the proper version including futures and options activity. Find below these resources:
View a table of the latest legacy report:
These reports are broken down by the exchange, with a futures-only report and a combined futures and options report, the latter being the one we want to stick with. It is then unpacked into reportable open interest positions for non-commercial (speculators) and commercial traders (hedgers).
View a table of the latest TIFF report.:
These reports include financial contracts, such as currencies, U.S. Treasury securities, Eurodollars, stocks, VIX and Bloomberg commodity index. These reports have a futures-only report and a combined futures and options report, the latter the one we want to use. The TFF report breaks down the reportable open interest positions into Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds, and Other Reportables.
Access the historical data:
In this section of the CFTC website, any entity or individual is free to download the historical data accumulated over the years of the different classified CoT reports. This site is very handy in case you want to crunch the numbers and conduct your own backtesting.
Access a 2018 comparison table:
This document comprises a handy personal notebook, where I annotate the most recent changes in positioning in order to assist my weekly analysis.
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