Better Risk Conditions Ahead Of The FOMC
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Better Risk Conditions Ahead Of The FOMC

Authored by Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

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Scan Of The Markets

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. 

‘Risk on’ conditions made a comeback as US equities showed a better bid on hopes of vaccines to treat COVID-19 by the end of the year, even if you wouldn’t be able to tell such shift in dynamics judging by the performance of the Yen, an outlier on Monday.

The overall flow dynamics were kind of a mix-bag as the US Dollar did indeed give back some ground amid the better mood, yet the Aussie and Canadian Dollar were also for most of the day under pressure. The Aussie in particular got sold early on the day on speculation that the RBA could be laying the ground for further monetary policy easing.

As NAB research team notes: “A couple of AFR articles, seemingly well “sourced”, were suggesting the RBA was considering further monetary policy easing by buying federal and state government bonds further along the yield curve to bring interest rates down, complemented with a cut in the cash rate from 0.25% to 0.10%.”

The main winners included the Kiwi, the Pound and metals. The outlook on the latter is still uncertain near term as it consolidates the Q2 gains in a broad range while the Pound, after the worst losing streaks this year, aside from the COVID-led fall, saw shorts covering. As per the Kiwi, the combination of risk-on alongside plans to lift some of the virus restrictions appear to be the major contributors.

As a reminder, this week’s volatility in FX will be mostly concentrated around the outcome of the FOMC scheduled for Wednesday. Until then, it’s unlikely that the market will find new drivers aside from the recurring Brexit headlines, to still be a catalyst for GBP vol, while the EUR may too enjoy the momentum gained post last week’s ECB.

In terms of new trading opportunities, below I share a couple of trades that were made available in line with the TT pattern that I look to exploit every day. In the first chart, a long in EUR/USD around the London open went for a 3:1 risk reward, while in the overlap of Europe and US, a short in GBP/JPY also popped up in what’s still an ongoing yet free trade by now.

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Hot Trade Of The Day

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.   

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 

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Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

 

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM 

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection