Euro Resilient Despite EU Talks Fail
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Euro Resilient Despite EU Talks Fail

Authored by Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

If we take a look back at the last week of trading, long Euros definitely paid dividends as the market got busy pricing in a positive outcome out of this weekend’s EU recovery fund talks. However, for now, after three days debating the size and design of the European Recovery Plan, EU leaders are yet to strike an agreement.

The jury is still out there on how and when the funds will be made available, if at all (this would be a shocker), but from what the price action is telling us, it appears as though the market, after a down gap in the Euro, still shows resilience to bid up the single currency despite the EU Summit has failed to shed a light on the key issues at stake.

Should European leaders not come up with something close to an agreement in coming weeks, watch this EUR space as we might be in for some significant volatility towards the downside. Even if that eventually transpires,  note it would take some time to fully shift the recently built buy-side bias off the EUR via the 4h and daily charts.

While unable to keep up with the strong buying interest towards the Euro, the AUD managed to end up the week as the distant second best performer. One could argue the currency remains resilient backed up by buoyant equities, but again, you could also make a case that the 6-week lockdown in Melbourne was a negative input, hence why getting a gauge of trends through technicals as the ultimate compass is so powerful and why it trumps fundamentals to engage in framing speculative ideas.

Lastly, be reminded that this week we have the resumption of the US fiscal stimulus debate as Congress returns after a two-week recess. There has been plenty of chatter that a phase 4 fiscal package, drafted up by the US administration, could be a reality in August even if significant hurdles exist for Republicans and Democrats to agree. Expectations are for a package of around $1 trillion and without a doubt it would influence equities and the broader risk dynamics.

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Eagle View Momentum & Structures

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The table shows key metrics (Fractals and SMT) in different timeframes (4h and daily) to assist us in selecting the best markets to trade intraday (link to the script). A video on the power of the SMT can be found here “How To Trade Forex Trends Like A Pro“. The video “Fractals + SMT Upgrade: The Multi-timeframe Functionality” is also a Must-Watch.

Trending Markets On My Radar

In this section, from the table above, and after scanning through the charts, I short-list the markets that meet the criteria or may soon do to engage on a directional trend off higher timeframes through a 15m timeframe entry. To get a deeper dive into the markets included in this section, watch my daily video analysis below.


Hot Trade Of The Day

In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.   

There were no trades available last Friday. Remember, “the good speculators always wait and have patience, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment” said Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders who ever lived. If I may add, waiting for the market to come to us instead of us chasing the market prematurely is as critical.

Insights Into Market Flows

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 

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Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex. To simplify it all for readers, a transition to analyze structures via Fractal breakouts has been included in my analysis.

SMART MONEY TRACKER 

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS

It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection