Forex Trends – Gift That Keeps On Giving
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Forex Trends – Gift That Keeps On Giving

Authored by Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

It was a lively day in the markets with the European FX complex (EUR, GBP, CHF) once again taking the spotlight as the euphoria to accumulate further long inventory at the expense of the obliterated North American currencies (USD, CAD) continues mercilessly.

This continuous boost in European currencies, where the Pound excels as of late, came amid a notable recovery in the ‘risk on’ mood in stocks as the tech giants, aside from Google, reported solid earnings. For this Friday, remember to account for the significant vol spikes that we tend to see due to month-end portfolio re-balancing flows.

Note, the monumental rise in European FX in recent weeks is well timed with the EU recovery fund agreement worth €750bn. It implies that ever since decision-makers struck the deal, there has been a major rotation of capital back into Europe away from US/Asia.

In terms of the economic news one should have been prepared for, what stood out included the major collapse in the US Q2 GDP after it contracted at an almost 33% annualised rate in Q2 with falling personal consumption the main culprit. In Germany, the Q2 GDP was too devastating with the worst read in records at -10.1% q/q.

As usual, I’ve selected all the currency pairs that continue to show ongoing trends, and I must admit, very few times we see so many instruments in full congruence to trade directional biases in the higher timeframes. As you may notice, the main active trends include the matching of a European currency vs an American/Oceanic one.

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Eagle View Momentum & Structures

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The table shows key metrics (Fractals and SMT) in different timeframes (4h and daily) to assist us in selecting the best markets to trade intraday (link to the script). A video on the power of the SMT can be found here “How To Trade Forex Trends Like A Pro“. The video “Fractals + SMT Upgrade: The Multi-timeframe Functionality” is also a Must-Watch.

Trending Markets On My Radar

In this section, from the table above, and after scanning through the charts, I short-list the markets that meet the criteria or may soon do to engage on a directional trend off higher timeframes through a 15m timeframe entry. To get a deeper dive into the markets included in this section, watch my daily video analysis below.


Hot Trade Of The Day

In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.   

This long position in CHF/JPY was a well telegraphed trade as part of the daily watch list. The entry trigger came just ahead of the US open after the market regained the bullish structure on the 15m chart and simultaneously, cleared a horizontal resistance. That was all we needed to see in terms of objective technical analysis to imply the market was ready to resume the uptrend. So far, we’ve retested the previous high.

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 

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Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex. To simplify it all for readers, a transition to analyze structures via Fractal breakouts has been included in my analysis.

SMART MONEY TRACKER 

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS

It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection