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Relentless Supply Imbalances In The USD

The US Dollar continues to be smacked lower mercilessly. Once again, the currency ended as the worst performer. On the flip side, the volatile Pound topped the leader board, following the sharp decline it had the prior day. This whipsawing action in the British currency comes to show how erratic the behaviour remains amid the 'crunch time'...

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Scan of the Forex market

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.

 

The US Dollar continues to be smacked lower mercilessly. Once again, the currency ended as the worst performer. On the flip side, the volatile Pound topped the leader board, following the sharp decline it had the prior day. This whipsawing action in the British currency comes to show how erratic the behaviour remains amid the ‘crunch time’ period in the Brexit trade deal talks.

This week, unless something suddenly changes this Friday, might be one of the rare times when, due to the current market dynamics, we end up with literally no tradable TT patterns. This lack of activity is not something we can have control over. We must always let the market and the narrative via price action determine when it’s time to jump into trades. This patience to trade the TT pattern is what ultimately begets the success that one can have trading it, by recognising that letting the market come to us is a major virtue of any accomplished trader.

In terms of fundamental narratives, the main focus on Thursday was on OPEC, Brexit and US stimulus. The OPEC+ cartel struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, back 500K bpd of production in Jan, Feb and March. Crude barely reacted but the market, you’d think, saw the news as welcoming for the CAD given the strong recovery off the lows. As per Brexit, ongoing problems in a few areas continue. The same can be said about the US stimulus negotiations, no breakthrough, yet the politicians are still sounding as if a deal may be struck.

Heading into this Friday, be prepared to account for the Payrolls & Unemployment data in both the US and Canada. From a practical standpoint, what this means, is that we don’t want to run into this event holding any exposure that many cause unnecessary slippage. If and when a trade is entered during the European session ahead of US NFP figures, make sure that the exposure is managed adequately by cutting and/or protecting any unnecessary risk as the closer we get to the event, the poorer the liquidity becomes. Once the dust settles post the data, the next 3h until the London close is when most opportunities can be found.

Analysis of the Forex trends

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market. 

Economic indicators & events

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.

 

Source: Forexfactory

Important footnotes

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About the author

Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

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