‘Risk On’ Flows To End The Month/Quarter
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‘Risk On’ Flows To End The Month/Quarter

Authored by Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. 

Following the debacle of the ‘circus’, I mean, the televised US Presidential Election Debate last night, the risk-on sentiment remains undeterred. From what I could gather, backing up the existing positive order flow seen in equities as I explained in yesterday’s video analysis,  we find Dems and GOP giving another go to a fiscal stimulus package.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said mid US session that he was going to give it “one more try” for a new stimulus deal, words that appeared to resonate with House Majority Leader Pelosi, who also had constructive things to say about the prospects of it. To top it off, White House’s Meadows said “he’s seen substantial movement on a stimulus deal”.

The net effect in the last 24h, a day where we also had to account for some wild moves in the London fix as part of month/quarter end re-balancing flows, was the USD and JPY extending losses for yet another day (back-to-back-to back this week) as US stocks moved higher. The Aussie, Pound, Loonie and Gold were the winners on Wednesday.

Pay attention because in today’s video I reinforce the notion of how the analysis of order flow could have been the compass to anticipate today’s news yesterday (tomorrow’s news today if you will). I exhibit a few examples that will leave no stone unturned in how the predictive power of fractals-derived order flow gave us a prelude of the bullish action in the Pound or US indices to name just a couple of markets.

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Hot Trade Of The Day

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.  A short position in CAD/CHF was the idea promoted in the last 24h based off OFA. 

 

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 

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Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

 

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM 

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection