Setback In Risk, Swing Trades Still Available
Featured

Setback In Risk, Swing Trades Still Available

Authored by Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

A setback in risk flows took place as portrayed by the sell off in stocks, bond yields and the Oceanic currencies (AUD, NZD). The likes of the Yen, the US Dollar or Gold were given a boost amid the shift in dynamics, while quite noticeably, the Euro kept enjoying follow through demand on the back of the historic EU recovery fund deal.

Given the sudden change of heart, we’ve transitioned from identifying over 20 markets with valid trends as per the alignment of the 4h and the daily to now having that number cut down by more than half. A bunch of Yen crosses, USD pairs and metals still make it to the trending list today, although given the fluidity in the risk shift seen, it’s important that during the day one keeps monitoring the higher time scales to make sure the conditions remain ripe to reinstate exposure.

Heading into Friday, the European/US PMIs will likely see a minor injection of vol in the EUR, GBP, USD. However, the big macro theme set to dominate the narrative in the next 7 days, aside from COVID-19, orbits around the uncertainty surrounding the benefits extension as Congress keeps negotiating the next stimulus bill ahead of the August recess. The back and forth between Democrats and Republicans is set to move markets in the near future, even if what matters most is what technicals are telling us.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Eagle View Momentum & Structures

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The table shows key metrics (Fractals and SMT) in different timeframes (4h and daily) to assist us in selecting the best markets to trade intraday (link to the script). A video on the power of the SMT can be found here “How To Trade Forex Trends Like A Pro“. The video “Fractals + SMT Upgrade: The Multi-timeframe Functionality” is also a Must-Watch.

Trending Markets On My Radar

In this section, from the table above, and after scanning through the charts, I short-list the markets that meet the criteria or may soon do to engage on a directional trend off higher timeframes through a 15m timeframe entry. To get a deeper dive into the markets included in this section, watch my daily video analysis below.


Hot Trade Of The Day

In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.   

Insights Into Market Flows

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex. To simplify it all for readers, a transition to analyze structures via Fractal breakouts has been included in my analysis.

SMART MONEY TRACKER 

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS

It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection