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UK-EU Trade Deal Down To The Wire

Looking at the global context, the Pound continues to be the one currency driving the 'show' in FX. Its weakness, caused by a market engrossed by the heightened fears of a no trade deal, is spilling over in how erratic swings have been elsewhere. This Brexit central-theme, which now has its deadline on Wednesday, has led markets to morph into dynamics of risk off and then risk on.

Let’s get started…

Scan of the Forex market

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.

 

Looking at the global context, the Pound continues to be the one currency driving the ‘show’ in FX. Its wobbles, caused by a market engrossed by the heightened fears of a no trade deal, is spilling over in how erratic swings have been elsewhere. This Brexit central-theme, which now has its deadline on Wednesday, has led markets to morph into dynamics of risk off and then risk on.

Why the eventual recovery of riskier currencies and the Pound late on the day? Because, ultimately, even if the EU/UK leader’s talks broke down on Monday, with the familiar impasse in issues relating to achieve a level playing field, governance and fisheries, a new catalyst emerged that gave the market another glimpse of hope.

I am talking about the news that UK PM Johnson would be going in person to Brussels to meet face-to-face with his EU counterpart in order to achieve what is seen as a last ditch effort to narrow the differences. This headline did beget hope, and off it went the Pound, spiking to catch late sellers by surprise. Be ready for further volatile price action in the Pound.

Trading the TT or Trapped Traders pattern in such a convoluted and dicey environment has been a real challenge. I am often reminding myself of the following quote. “Money is made by mostly sitting not trading.” Even if trades are not happening that often in the TT front, one key aspect of successful trading is learning to observe and process information but do nothing.

As I told my right-hand man (Terry) as part of the TT strategy in the chatroom yesterday, “new students may not realise at first but the action of sitting out trades not only makes us cultivate the ability to be patient and disciplined, but what it also does is to makes us be better at trading that strategy. Why? Because we are constantly engaging and referring back to the rules on what does and does not qualify as a valid trade. Those who engage in this active process prime their brain due to this spaced repetition, which leads to learn the strategy intuitively and naturally.”

So, as part of the daily process to scan for the best contextual settings in order to exploit the TT setup, you can watch my conclusions below. The lack of clear drivers, the uncertainty around the Brexit trade deal and a new US fiscal stimulus, and the fact that we are quickly approaching the end of the year, are all contributors for the subpar conditions.

Analysis of the Forex trends

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market. 

Economic indicators & events

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.

Source: Forexfactory

Important footnotes

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.

About the author

Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

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